WASHINGTON (AP) 鈥 One year out from Election Day, President Joe Biden 鈥檚 reelection campaign is outlining a plan to retain the White House by framing the 2024 race around many of the same themes it used in 2020 鈥 presenting a contrast with Donald Trump 's 鈥淢ake America Great Again鈥 movement stark enough to reenergize its winning coalition of supporters.
In a strategy memo obtained by The Associated Press, Biden campaign manager said her team is already looking beyond the Republican presidential primary to a general election 鈥渢hat will be very close." But 鈥渢he message remains popular with voters and central to this campaign."
鈥淭he president and vice president have a strong message that resonates with voters, a clear contrast with whoever the MAGA Republican Party nominates,鈥 Rodriguez wrote. 鈥淭his campaign will win by doing the work and ignoring the outside chatter 鈥 just like we did in 2020.鈥
The memo is striking in how it reflects a president who has repeatedly asked voters to allow him to 鈥渇inish the job鈥 but is also waging a campaign that is just as focused on presenting the race as a referendum on stopping Trump. The MAGA movement is still strong despite the former president being indicted in four separate cases and facing 91 total criminal counts.
春色直播 polls indicate that, if the race were held today, a rematch between Biden and Trump would be exceedingly close. The election will occur one year from Sunday.
One issue the memo omits is voters鈥 concerns about the 80-year-old Biden鈥檚 age. An found that 77% of U.S. adults 鈥 including 69% of Democrats 鈥 viewed Biden as too old to be effective for four more years
Rodriguez stresses that the administration's and , as well as programs aiming to improve , helped Democrats , holding the Senate and only narrowly ceding the House majority to the GOP.
Ahead of 2024, "our early research shows the president鈥檚 message of building on our progress to finish the job remains a winning one for mobilizing our base and persuading undecided voters,鈥 Rodriguez wrote.
The memo argues that next year's race 鈥渨ill be a clear choice for the American people鈥 and predicts voters will reject 鈥淢AGA extremism鈥 and be swayed by the administration鈥檚 legislative accomplishments, including a massive and sweeping .
Polls, though, show Biden may not be getting credit for such initiatives.
Only about 4 in 10 U.S. adults approve of the president's job performance, according to from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. And two-thirds disapprove of his handing of the economy.
An showed that a Biden-championed policy allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices was overwhelmingly popular, with three-quarters of Americans favoring the policy change. But they were overall split on Biden鈥檚 handling of the issue of prescription drug prices.
And a June survey found that 58% of Americans disapproved of how Biden was handling abortion policy. Only about 4 in 10 approved.
The campaign began trying to reverse such perceptions in September, with a 16-week, $25 million advertising campaign targeting what Chavez called 鈥渧oters across battleground states 鈥 including earlier-than-ever investments in Hispanic and African American media鈥 and testing 鈥渢he messaging contrast that will be core to this election.鈥
The campaign says it's a down payment on what is expected to be a more than $1 billion effort to communicate with voters in 2024 鈥 up from about $800 million in 2020. Much of the near-term focus has been on reinforcing Biden鈥檚 record to voters, particularly on the economy, aiming to remind them of the reeling pandemic economy he inherited in 2021 and where things are now.
鈥淭hose kinds of macroeconomic arguments are not things that you鈥檙e seeing show up in public polling, but in ad testing, it does appear that voters are open to that argument," said Patrick Bonsignore, a Biden campaign adviser on paid media.
But even those messages are meant to draw an implicit contrast against Trump, Bonsignore said.
鈥淭here鈥檚 an inherent and baked-in contrast to whose side these people are on," he said. "Everything that Joe Biden has done as president, and especially when you look at the economic consequences, is on the side of working families and working people. And there鈥檚 a really clear argument that Donald Trump and the GOP writ large are not on the side of working families.鈥
Trump, meanwhile, has built a despite his legal entanglements. But even beyond him, the memo argues, 鈥渢he MAGA extremism that now defines the Republican Party is a significant barrier to victory for the GOP in key battleground states.鈥
Biden spent months prior to the midterms . Rodriguez writes that 2024 could look like 2022's midterms, when Democrats won tight Senate races in Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania 鈥 all states key to winning the White House.
鈥淓very time voters are confronted with this choice they continue to vote with Democrats,鈥 said Biden campaign communications director Michael Tyler.
Democratic strategist Tim Hogan said the Biden campaign needs to combat "a complacency that people fall into when they feel like there鈥檚 a rematch,鈥 Hogan said. To counter that, he said, Biden should promote his administration鈥檚 achievements while reminding voters what everyday life was like under Trump.
Setting up the contrast, he said: 鈥淚t鈥檚 a stability and chaos question for voters.鈥
The memo says that Biden鈥檚 campaign also has focused on off-year elections happening next week in . From the time Biden through Sept. 1, it says, the campaign has 鈥渞eengaged volunteers to make over 1.1 million calls and send nearly 4 million texts to persuade and turn out voters."
The campaign also has begun working on minority voter outreach, launching pilot programs to expand organizing in Wisconsin college communities, Milwaukee鈥檚 Black neighborhoods and key swing areas in Phoenix 鈥 attempting to blunt GOP narratives that Democratic support among both is slipping.
Concerns about Biden's age loom as well.
鈥淗onestly, if it comes down to Joe Biden and Trump, I feel like Trump鈥檚 going to win,鈥 said Lindy Pillow, a 22-year-old cashier in Phoenix who voted for Biden four years ago and has been disappointed with rising prices and thinks the president has lost a step.
鈥淏iden鈥檚 very much losing people right now,鈥 Pillow said.
Based in Wilmington, Delaware, where Biden has a home away from the White House, the campaign is in Washington, which spent $95 million bolstering state parties ahead of the midterms and plans more investment this cycle. They had a as of Oct. 1, which Rodriguez called 鈥渢he most ever for a Democratic candidate at this point in the race.鈥
Republican strategist Rick Tyler cautioned against reviving too many 2020 themes.
鈥淚t鈥檇 be malpractice to suggest you can win the same race in the same way you won it before,鈥 said Tyler, who said many voters have forgotten that Trump left the White House with the pandemic raging and the economy declining. 鈥淲inning election is always about the future. It鈥檚 never about the past.鈥
Still, Torin Walhood, a 26-year-old airline pilot from Portland, Oregon, said he wasn't worried about Trump reclaiming the White House.
鈥淗e already was defeated as an incumbent,鈥 Walhood said. 鈥淚 think that it depends largely on who Biden has to run against. But if it ends up being Trump again, I think it鈥檚 probably going to be a second term of Biden.鈥
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Associated Press writers Linley Sanders in Washington and Jonathan J. Cooper in Phoenix contributed to this report.
