GUATEMALA CITY (AP) 鈥 Preliminary and partial results in Guatemala鈥檚 presidential election pointed to the likelihood of a second round of voting and indicated who the two candidates could be in the Aug. 20 runoff.
With 70% of the votes counted early Monday, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal reported that former first lady Sandra Torres for the conservative UNE party and Bernardo Ar茅valo for the leftist Seed Movement were in the lead, but both were below 20% of the votes.
That is far from the 50% threshold needed to win in the first round. A cluster of other candidates hovered between 6% and 8% of the votes. Invalid ballots from a frustrated electorate led all the candidates more than midway through the tally.
Torres, watching the results from a downtown hotel conference room, told reporters that regardless of her opponent, she was ready for the runoff and 鈥淕od willing, to be Guatemala's first woman president.鈥 She recognized the high number of invalid ballots and said it indicated the citizens' lack of confidence in the process.
At the central voting computation center, Ar茅valo conceded that he was surprised by how well he was doing in the early returns, and said he would take the faith that voters showed in him on Sunday and use it 鈥渢o pull the country out of the swamp鈥 if elected.
鈥淭he results are the exhaustion of the people with the traditional political class,鈥 Ar茅valo said.
The vote came amid Guatemala鈥檚 worrisome drift toward authoritarianism. hoped that even if the next president did not represent the change element they hoped for, he or she would at least recognize the importance of the country鈥檚 institutions and halt the erosion that occurred under President Alejandro Giammattei.
In four years, Guatemala went from an aggressive pursuit of networks of corrupt actors to a relentless persecution of the very prosecutors and judges who propelled it. More than two dozen justice figures have fled the country.
With them in exile, the government then turned its sights to other critical voices, including the media. Earlier this month, a tribunal for money laundering, in what press freedom groups decried as Giammattei silencing a prominent critic.
As the presidential campaign got underway earlier this year, electoral authorities and courts kept three prominent candidates 鈥 from the left and right, but all promising to disrupt the status quo 鈥 off the ballot.
Barred from participating, they called for their supporters to cast null ballots.
鈥淚t鈥檚 the democratic way of rejecting the system,鈥 said Roberto Arz煤, who briefly ran a conservative law-and-order campaign before authorities ruled him ineligible for allegedly starting his campaign prematurely.
He said he told visiting foreign election observers that it was nice of them to come watch the vote count, but that 鈥渢he fraud has already been committed.鈥
Other popular excluded candidates were leftist Thelma Cabrera from the Indigenous Mam people and Carlos Pineda, a conservative populist running an outsider campaign and leading in the polls until his candidacy was cancelled a month before the vote.
The stronger-than-expected showing by the Seed Movement 鈥 a leftist party whose presidential candidate Ar茅valo had not been among leading candidates in the most recent polls 鈥 was the perhaps the biggest surprise early in the count. Ar茅valo is the son of Juan Jos茅 Ar茅valo, one of only two leftist presidents in Guatemala鈥檚 democratic era.
Edgar Guti茅rrez, a political analyst and former foreign affairs minister for Guatemala, said before the vote that some of those most likely to advance to a second round would promise at least a modicum of improvement over Giammattei.
鈥淭his time the problem is to rescue the rule of law and reconstruct institutions, because if we don鈥檛 do this, you won鈥檛 be able to address all of the underlying problems,鈥 Guti茅rrez said.
The problem is not isolated to Guatemala in Central America.
Nicaragua President Daniel Ortega has gone to extremes to quash all opposition, first terrorizing with his security forces, persecuting enemies through targeted legislation, then jailing and exiling any critical voices.
El Salvador鈥檚 Nayib Bukele is wildly popular at home, but has concentrated power in the congress and judiciary, weakening the system of checks and balances. More than a year after suspending some fundamental rights, more than 60,000 people accused of ties to the country鈥檚 powerful street gangs.
In Honduras, with her family this month, weeks after her organization published a report expressing concern that President Xiomara Castro has sprinkled relatives throughout the government in key positions.
鈥淓verything that is happening in Central America is this, a disenchantment in democracy, the discrediting of democratic institutions par excellence,鈥 Guti茅rrez said. 鈥淪o the people because of that are leaving Guatemala. They are emigrating because the democracy does not produce results.鈥
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AP videojournalists Fernanda Pesce and Santiago Billy contributed to this report.
