Last fall, the federal government announced it would lower immigration targets after criticism of the impact of strong population growth on housing availability and affordability. A chart that spread widely on social media last week appeared to show a dramatic rise in net migration into Canada, indicating the country will see 2.5 million people enter in 2025. The chart contains false and misleading figures. The chart has been altered to add data that does not appear in the listed source from Statistics Canada, it does not account for migrant outflows, and government immigration targets for 2025 are much lower than the post claims.
THE CLAIM
"CANADA’S IMMIGRATION GRAPH JUST TURNED INTO A ROCKET SHIP," read on X, formerly Twitter, with more than 2.7 million views and 14,000 likes.Ìý
It contained an image of a line graph with the title, "Canada: net international migration, 1952 to 2025." The image shows a blue line fluctuating up and down under the 400,000 mark before starting to shoot up around 2021 and reaching the 2.5 million mark this year.Ìý
The post credits another X account, which claims in that the chart is based on "Liberal government targets for 2025," and that it represents the "largest peacetime influx of immigrants relative to population size in world history."
RATING: False and misleading
The line graph shared on May 31 was an edited version of a chart shared by a on Oct. 8, 2024, with the title, "Canada: net international migration, 1952 to 2023."
That chart showed a sharp rise in net migration after 2021, but the line stops just after 1.2 million in the year 2023. The same account last month shared an with more recent data, showing a steep drop in 2024 to just above 700,000 newcomers.
The edited "rocket ship" chart added the year 2025 and used a different shade of blue to extend the line up to 2.5 million. It did not include the drop in net migrants recorded for 2024.Ìý
The federal government revised its immigration levels plan in October 2024, dropping 2025 targets for new permanent residents from 500,000 to 395,000.Ìý
It also introduced , including temporary foreign workers and international students, with the aim of reducing the share of temporary residents to 5 per cent of the total population by the end of 2026. The target for new temporary resident arrivals in 2025 is set at 673,650.
Together, that brings Canada's migration target to 1,068,650 in 2025, not the 2.5 million mentioned in the X post. This figure is different from net international migration, as it doesn't include immigrants leaving Canada or becoming naturalized ´ºÉ«Ö±²¥ citizens.Ìý
A LOOK AT THE DATA
The source listed at the bottom of all the charts is Statistics Canada's .Ìý
The Statistics Canada table includes data on , defined as permanent residents or landed immigrants, and non-permanent residents, defined as people from another country who reside in Canada and have a work or study permit or have claimed refugee status, as well as their accompanying family members. Also included in the table is net non-permanent residents, which shows the difference between the inflows and outflows of non-permanent residents.
Statistics Canada calculates net international migration by adding the number of immigrants and net non-permanent residents and subtracting net emigration, those who have left Canada.
Statistics Canada said the original chart showing migration shooting up after 2021 is flawed.Ìý
"The figure is not an accurate picture of Canada’s migration patterns," a spokesman for Statistics Canada said in an email.Ìý
The user who made the chart said they to calculate the annual net migration figures that included inflows and outflows of non-permanent residents. However, those figures are only available after the third quarter in 2021.
"For the years where this data is not available, the 'net non-permanent residents' component should have been used instead," the Statistics Canada spokesman said.
Statistics Canada started collecting data on net non-permanent residents in the third quarter of 1971, so any calculations of annual net international migration should begin from 1972, not 1952, the agency noted.Ìý
´ºÉ«Ö±²¥evaluated the same data using the formula immigrants plus net non-permanent residents minus net emigration, and found the chart roughly reflected the data trends – there was a large gain in net migrants after 2021, with more than 1.2 million people coming into Canada in 2023.Ìý
However, there are inaccuracies, including in 2019, which in the chart appears to show 300,000 net migrants, but official data has it at 495,164; and 2020, where the chart shows just below 200,000 net migrants, but which actually hit a low of 69,293 during COVID-19 restrictions on travel.
Statistics Canada says the next quarterly population estimates for the first three months of 2025 will be released on June 18.
NO EVIDENCE FOR PEACETIME CLAIM
´ºÉ«Ö±²¥could find no evidence to support the claim that Canada has or is projected to see the "largest peacetime influx of immigrants relative to population size in world history."
It is difficult to find immigration data from other countries as many don't share their statistics publicly. However, World Bank data points to other countries that have experienced rapid increases in their populations during periods of economic growth, such as the United Arab Emirates.
The UAE saw a people in 2007 amid a construction boom. The country's population for that year was , which puts its migration rate in 2007 at 129 per 1,000 people. It is unclear whether World Bank includes non-permanent residents in their migration data.
Using Statistics Canada data, with a net migration of 1.2 million people – including temporary residents – in a population of 40.1 million, Canada's migration rate in 2023 was 30 per 1,000 people.
A list comparing countries' net migration rates in 2023, published in the United States Central Intelligence Agency's , placed Canada at number 22, behind such places as the British Virgin Islands at number five, Ireland at 13 and Australia at 16. The list doesn't indicate a source for its figures, so it's unclear whether data on non-permanent residents are included.Ìý
SOURCES
Claims posted June 1, 2025 (), () and ()
Updated line graph with 2024 figures added posted on May 5, 2025 (archived)
Nojoud Al Mallees, Laura Osman. Trudeau announces massive drop in immigration targets as Liberals make major pivot. ´ºÉ«Ö±²¥website. Oct. 24, 2024 ()
Notice – Supplementary Information for the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada . Accessed June 4, 2025 ()
Estimates of the components of international migration, quarterly. Statistics Canada . Accessed June 4, 2025 ()
Quarterly demographic estimates, provinces and territories: Interactive dashboard. Statistics Canada . Accessed June 4, 2025 ()
X user used to calculate net international migration for original chart, May 31, 2025 ()
Net migration - United Arab Emirates. World Bank . Accessed June 9, 2025 ()
Population, total - United Arab Emirates. World Bank . Accessed June 9, 2025 ()
Country Comparisons – Net migration rate. CIA The World Factbook (2023 Archive) . Accessed June 9, 2025 ()
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